The last year plus for Holliday has been insane. His stock has absolutely soared. I love his smooth swing and plate discipline. The upside is certainly there but matched with his floor he comes in as my 1.1.
2. Druw Jones, OF, ARI
Jones and Holliday are a tier by themselves for me. The ceiling is massive, so if that's your thing, he's probably your 1.1. The hit tool though will determine that ceiling.
3. TeMarr Johnson, 2B/SS, PIT
The three spot in this class is tough. You can make an argument for 3-4 guys. But I'm going with the guy with the hit tool. Johnson may have the best hit tool in this class, and that's really saying something. He didn't have a great debut but I'm not worried about the bat. For a high school bat he's actually a pretty safe pick.
4. Elijah Greene, OF, WAS
I feel like we have heard about Greene for like 5 years. There was a time he was the no doubt 1.1 in this class. There's still an argument for that honestly. The tools are all there to be a super star 5 category future first round overall pick. But there's also some bust risk here because of the contact skills and swing and miss. If you want to shoot for the moon there's an argument for him going anywhere in these first four picks.
5. Kodai Senga, P, NYM
Here's a tough one to rank. The Mets gave this guy a lot of money, which should mean something...but who didn't the Mets give money to this off season (Correa...sorry Mets fans). The risk here is the same as any pitcher coming over but also there's some command questions. But he also has a good fastball and a pitch they call the ghost forkball. I like the sound of that. If you're contending and have a high pick via a trade or something this your pick.
6. Kevin Parada, C, NYM
My first college bat off the board might be a surprise but I honestly don't get why he's falling down boards. He can mash. I don't really care where he plays. The guy can hit. I watched a lot of Parada last year and he should be a quick mover with a ceiling of a top 2-3 catcher if he sticks there. There's plenty of pop in his bat.
7. Brooks Lee, SS, MIN
Another fast mover. Lee is big for SS so I'm not sure he sticks there but his bat will play regardless of where he ends up. The hit tool is really, really good. How much power he gets too is why he's falling down some boards but this is another example of me trusting the guy who can get the bat on the ball consistently.
8. Cam Collier, 3B, CIN
Collier was not really on my radar going into the draft. He absolutely burst onto the scene in his debut. There's not much more he could do and looks to be another exciting young Reds infielder. You can dream on this profile being a plus bat across the board. You can make an argument for him as high as 3 or 4.
9. Gavin Cross, OF, KCR
Cross has a lot of tools and should provide a lot of power and speed while being a pretty quick mover. He should push through multiple levels next year. For OBP leagues he gets another bump as well.
10. Chase DeLauter, OF, CLE
He's one of the toughest guys to rank. He could be the best player in the class or a complete bust. Both seem pretty possible. He played at a small school and struggled at times against bigger programs. Especially against lefties. But at the same time he was absolutely dominant against pretty much everyone else. Selecting DeLauter feels like rolling the dice more than a usual college bat, but that roll of the dice could also land you a fast moving impact bat.
11. Zach Neto, SS, LAA
12. Spencer Jones, OF, NYY
13. Dylan Lesko, SP, SDP
14. Jacob Berry, 3B, MIA
15. Dalton Rushing, C, LAD
16. Kumar Rocker, P, TEX
I'm probably the high guy on Rocker. Sure there's injury risk here and we've only seen limited action from him. Rangers did get him at unslot value. All things considered though this is still a very interesting profile. There's certainly risk but in the teens I'm fine to roll the dice on him. The big fastball and wipe out slider are a dynamic duo.
17. Masataka Yoshida, OF, BOS
18. Jace Jung, 2B, DET
19. Jett Williams, SS, NYM
20. Drew Gilbert, OF, HOU
I'm a little lower than most on Gilbert. I saw a lot of him last year as a Vols fan. He has a lot of things going for him. Tremendous defense in CF. Solid tools across the board. But he's more of a floor player for me than ceiling. One of those guys who is a better real life player than fantasy.
21. Cole Young, SS, SEA
22. Felnin Celesten, SS, SEA
A note on international guys in general first. These guys are all boom and bust it seems. So this is either a absolute steals or a wasted pick and there really hasn't been much in between. Remember when we used an early first round pick on Kevin Maitan and Robert Puason? But also on Marco Luciano and Jasson Dominguez. All those guys carried pretty much the same pedigree as Celesten. So, do you feel lucky?
23. Brock Porter, P, TEX
24. Cade Horton, P, CHC
25. Cooper Hjerpe, P, STL
26. Connor Prielipp, P, MIN
This stage of an FYPD I'm taking the upside of a SP who should be ready to go right out of the gate and immediately make this pick a steal. If it wasn't for an injury there's a chance Prielipp would have been a top 10 pick in this class. I'm willing to gamble on that at this point.
27. Jud Fabian, OF, BAL
Once upon a time Fabian was in the discussion for the number one pick of this class. Then the strikeouts came and he really faded. But then he landed in a fantastic place to get developed and showed a lot of that promise that had him in the 1.1 conversation during his debut. This feels like a great place to take a bat that has the tools to really rise quickly.
28. Dylan Beavers, OF, BAL
29. Ivan Melendez, 1B, ARI
30. Carson Whisenhunt, P, SFG
Pretty much the same thing I said about Prielipp I feel about Whisenhunt. Only he fell down boards because of suspension and not injury. The stuff is electric though and I trust the Giants to develop him. He already had a tremendous start to his pro career last year. Another month or so of that at another level and he would have been a top 15 pick in this class.
31. Ethan Salas, C, SDP
32. Brandon Barriera, P, TOR
33. Owen Murphy, P, ATL
34. Eric Brown Jr. SS, MIL
35. Daniel Susac, C, OAK
36. Jordan Beck, OF, COL
I saw a lot of Beck last year too (I'm a Tennessee fan in case you haven't pieces that together). Beck has a great hit tool. The power is there too, although I have always felt like he should get to a little more. Maybe that little bit more will come at Coors. There's not really much speed but the glove is solid and will help him stick in the OF.
37. Blade Tidewell, P, NYM
I might as well right about another relevant former Vol, although I didn't see a ton of him last year. He spent a lot of the year hurt and fell to the second round as a result. He has a big fastball and wipe out slider but needs another pitch. There's big strikeout stuff that had him start the year as a top 10 draft prospect. There's also a decent amount reliever risk though.
37. Landon Sims, P, ARI
39. Jackson Ferris, P, CHC
40. Tyler Locklear, 1B, SEA
41. Justin Crawford, OF, PHI
42. Joendry Vargas, SS, LAD
43. Brandon Mayea, OF, NYY
44 Noah Schultz, P, CHW
45. Sterling Thompson, OF, COL
46. Peyton Graham, SS, DET
47. Robby Snelling, P, SDP
48. Xavier Isaac, 1B, TBR
49. Gabriel Hughes, P, COL
50. Jacob Misiorowski, P, MIL
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